en تخصصي Special پژوهشي Research <div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:14px;"><span style="font-family:Source Sans Pro;"><span style="line-height:normal">Despite a decade of sustained investment in digital technologies, Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) continue to show uneven progress in access and educational quality. This paper analyses the structural conditions behind the gap between Digital Transformation (DT) and educational outcomes through a System Dynamics model that connects technological investment, faculty training, organisational culture, and social equity. Five scenarios were simulated for 2025&ndash;2035, varying investment, obsolescence, and equity; the model was parameterised with Colombian data and validated through structural, dimensional, extreme-condition, and sensitivity tests. The results suggest that DT depends less on maximising infrastructure investment than on coordinating institutional conditions. A scenario combining moderate investment with stronger equity reached about 90% of the educational quality obtained under maximal investment, with roughly one-third of the infrastructure. Infrastructure obsolescence and the loss of relevance of faculty digital skills followed different trajectories and therefore call for separate policy responses. Equity acts as a precondition for effective DT rather than a by-product: without equitable access, investment and training do not translate into educational opportunities at the scale policy agendas expect. The study offers a transferable System Dynamics model that other institutional contexts can re-parameterise with their own data.</span></span></span><br> &nbsp;</div> Digital Transformation, System Dynamics Modelling, Higher Education, Digital Divide, Educational Equity, Educational Quality 52 74 http://johepal.com/browse.php?a_code=A-10-1726-2&slc_lang=en&sid=1 Sandra Patricia Barragán Moreno 10031947532846005244 10031947532846005244 Yes University of Bogota Jorge Tadeo Lozano Nayibe Castro Novoa 10031947532846005245 0009-0002-6417-773X No University of Bogota Jorge Tadeo Lozano